Thursday, October 16, 2008

Phils Win the Pennant - Just Like I Didn't Predict

This is truly a surprise. I’ll be the first to admit that at the outset of the season I did not think the Phillies were going to the World Series, let alone even make the playoffs. Who could blame me for my less than positive outlook for the season? After all, the Phillies are the franchise with the most losses ever, in any sport. They break our hearts every year. Suffice to say, I had several questions about this team. In their quest to their first World Series appearance in 15 years they answered almost all of them. I still can't believe that they're in the World Series. I have to say it again, the World Friggin' Series!

1. I thought the departure of the de facto team leader Aaron Rowand would have a huge impact on the direction and focus of the team. He policed the clubhouse and kept guys in line. Who would fill this leadership void and who would make up for his production at the plate?

Answer: This was joint effort, led primarily by the guys that have came up in the Phillies farm system – JRoll, Chase, Burrell, Howard. Veteran leaders like Jamie Moyer taught the younger guys what it means to be a professional. Author and future Disney movie star Chris Coste was a constant reminder of perseverance.

The guy who would fill Rowand’s everyday position in centerfield, Shane Victorino, played the outfield brilliantly. Offensively, Shane had a decent year. He led the everyday players in batting average at a .293 clip, drove in 58 runs and stole 36 bases. But he saved his best for the postseason. The grand slam he hit in the NLDS off of CC Sabathia propelled the Phillies out of the first round and raised his national profile. (I remember watching this game at Scrimmages with my buddy Mike. We could not believe that Shane smoked a grand salami. Perhaps even more unlikely was that two batters earlier Brett Myers drew a walk on an amazing 10 pitch at bat where he kept battling off pitches over and over again. CC was clearly frustrated by walking the opposing pitcher that he never recovered and eventually gave up the game changing four run shot to Victorino.)

The spotlight focused on Shane even closer in the NLC versus the Dodgers. Every time he took the field or dug into the batters box, LA fans booed him. Marginal players do not get booed, only stars get booed. The thousands of Dodger fans that showed their distaste for Shane sang a coronation chorus, an introduction into the league’s elite that only a select few can qualify. He instantly became the newest Hollywood villain.

2. How would Brett Myers respond to a return to the starting rotation?

Answer: Not very well, initially. Case in point, this quote from Brett earlier in the season: “I’m a rock star as a closer and a regular player as a starter.” Was Brett trying to talk his way out of town a la Scott Rolen and Curt Schilling? Thankfully, no deal was made as a trip to the minors probably devalued his trade value. That demotion not only saved his career with the Phillies, but it also motivated him to improve as a baseball player. I say player and not just pitcher because Brett’s 3 hit, 3 RBI performance in Game 2 of the NLCS was a great example of how much he grew over the course of the season. After his stint with the Reading Phillies, Myers’s record was 9-4, including 2 playoff wins. He’s regained the form that made him the Phillies number one starter pre Cole Hamels. His game two start in the World Series will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the series.

3. Besides Cole Hamels, whom could the Phillies depend on in the starting rotation?

Answer: Before I address this question, I have to say that Hamels truly emerged as one of the top pitchers in the game this year. Thanks to the Phillies on staff chiropractor, Cole stayed healthy all year and was second in the NL in innings pitched (227.1). If only he had gotten some more run support he would have won 20 games, instead he finished the regular season with a respectable 14-10 record and a 3.09 ERA. So far he has been money in the playoffs and I fully expect him to pitch a strong game one of the World Series.

Now back to the question at hand. Unfortunately, Kyle Kendrick’s 10 - 4 rookie season didn’t transfer over to his second season. Even though he won 11 games this year, his ERA skyrocketed from 3.87 in 2007 to 5.49. This is what happens when a sinkerball pitcher doesn’t keep the ball down in the strike zone. Long term, I think Kyle will recover. Too bad it’s not happening this year.

The ageless hometown kid from Sellersville, Jamie Moyer won 16 games. Despite the occasional blow up game he took the ball every fifth day and would give Charlie at least five innings. It’s still amazing that he can get guys out with so much junk. He’s like Eddie Harris in Major League, only older. Philly is pretty nervous about what will happen when he starts game four and with good reason. He got lit up in his previous two postseason starts lasting a combine 5.1 innings and giving up eight earned runs. I, on the other hand, will take a positive look on his next start. Jamie has been a big game pitcher for us. After all, it was the old man who led us to two NL East titles with clutch performances in the last game of each season. Furthermore, over his 22-year career he’s never made it to the World Series. He’s going to want to throw the best game of his life. Who knows, maybe he’ll blow up the radar gun with 84 mph fastballs.

Mid season acquisition Joe Blanton didn’t arrive in town with as much fanfare and attention as CC Sabathia in Milwaukee and Rich Harden in Chicago, but he’s the only one still playing baseball this far into October. He’s not flashy by any means and sure doesn’t rack up the strikeouts. He is, however, an effective inning eater that lets his defense make plays. By limiting walks he reduces the number of base runners. He’s almost like a quarterback that is in there to manage the game by controlling the clock and not turning the ball over. Kerry Collins for the Tennessee Titans right now is a good example of a game manager. There’s no arguing that GM Pat Gillick made a good deal in acquiring Blanton, even though it was not a sexy move.

Adam Eaton is still stealing money. There’s nothing else I have to say about that.

4. How will Pop Pop Manuel perform as manager?

Answer: Charlie has had his share of criticism in Philly, notably for his questionable game time decision-making and inarticulate post game press conferences. But there is no doubt about his baseball IQ and ability to teach. More importantly, he gets professional baseball players to trust and listen to him. Ask Jimmy Rollins. I thought that Charlie handled Jimmy’s display of “I’m too good to run out a ground ball” was perfect. Pop Pop understands that no player is bigger than the team. No special treatment. Everyone follows the rules…Hustle and Be on Time. To Jimmy’s credit, he admitted he was wrong and fully supported his manager’s decision to bench him. Charlie may be a “player’s manager” but the team knows he will enforce the rules. At the same time, the players know he’s got their back. As it turns out, Charlie was the right man for the Phillies managerial job.

Most of my questions have been answered. I asked and the team hath spoken. There remains, however, one more crucial question. And it weighs on the hearts and minds of all he phaithful phans in the Delaware Valley; can the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series? Of course they can. If the stupid Red Sox can break the fabricated “curse” then why can’t the Phillies win the World Series? Why Not Us? We sure deserve it; Philly fans have suffered a combined 100 seasons since the last parade down Broad Street.

I feel confident in their chances, especially, because of the focus of the team. When they clinched the NL East the celebration was a bit more tempered than last year. I felt the same way after they beat the Brewers and the Dodgers. No doubt they still popped some bottles, but they all know that there remains work to be done. I don't want to get all involved in predictions so I won't. But I will say that I like our chances to win this thing.

Like most Phillies fans I want the guys to bring home a Championship, I want to a part of it even more. I've been kicking myself for the past few weeks for not buying season tickets. I mean I love going out to the ballpark to catch a game. There’s nothing like having a $7 beer and a Tony Luke’s cheese steak at Citizen’s Bank Park with family and friends. It truly is part of the American dream. The catch, however, is that you never can predict what will happen. Will the home team send the fans home happy or will the hated visiting team triumph? At the same time the anticipation of not knowing what will happen on any given night is exciting. Maybe Cole Hamels will pitch a no-hitter, J-Roll could hit for the cycle, Ryan Howard could hit 4 home runs, and Matt Stairs could hit a massive pinch-hit homer to win game four of the NLCS.

These competing emotions slugged it out with my frugal, conservative and economical brain in the pre season. The question at hand, do I purchase season tickets? A six game package sounded perfect. But, you don’t get playoff ticket rights for a six-pack of games. You have to buy a 16 game package. Those can run up over $1200. Now that’s a serious commitment. And in this environment can I justify dropping 12 hundo on Phillies tickets? Then you have to add up the cost of parking, beers, food, merchandise, programs, and inflation and all of a sudden I’m looking at dropping at least $2 large!

There would have been a slight chance to earn some of that money back, if the Phils made the playoffs. I was just not that confident of that happening. This is like gambling when you don’t know how to play the game. Or to use my profession as a reference, it’s like playing the stock market. Put in the time to research a company, study its balance sheet, review the executive committee's history and click the button on your mouse to buy shares in a firm that you think is well positioned for growth and will fatten your pockets. Even the E Trade baby can buy a stock. I have a graduate degree and am fully licensed in the securities industry; of course I can buy a stock. Next thing you know, the balance sheet that you thought was sound was propped up by some shady mortgage broker who sold a massive adjusted rate mortgage with verifying that the buyer has any income at all. Now the mortgage broker bundled that mortgage with other sub prime loans and sold them to an investment bank. The bankers collateralize the debt obligations and use fancy schmancy math and accounting practices to make everything look legit. Now the financial services industry is in crisis mode and you can’t trust anyone.

OK, I’ll end my diatribe on what’s going on in the global financial markets. My point is I'm a terrible gambler. I need full information in order to make educated decisions. Given their history of falling short and the aforementioned questions I had before the season began, it was a pretty good bet that the Phillies would not qualify for the postseason.

But now I want in when the stock is sky high. I’m seriously considering blowing some serious cashish on playoff tickets. Yesterday, I saw standing room only tickets for only $300 a piece. I can make that work; at least that’s what I tell myself. This is a lifetime opportunity. It would be a dream come true to be at the ballpark when the Phillies win the World Series. Most assuredly I will be watching every inning at home where the beer is cheaper and the seats are more comfortable. So long as they win and I can go to the Championship parade, I’ll be just fine.

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